CO2 Levels Highest in 15 Million Years

CO2 Levels Not This High for 15 Million Years, When Climate Was 5° to 10°F Warmer and Seas Were 75 to 120 Feet Higher

~ “We have shown that this dramatic rise in sea level is associated with an increase in CO2 levels of about 100 ppm.” ~

You would have to go back at least 15 million years to find carbon dioxide levels on Earth as high as they are today, a UCLA scientist and colleagues report Oct. 8 in the online edition of the journal Science.

“The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland,” said the paper’s lead author, Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA assistant professor in the department of Earth and space sciences and the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences.

“Carbon dioxide is a potent greenhouse gas, and geological observations that we now have for the last 20 million years lend strong support to the idea that carbon dioxide is an important agent for driving climate change throughout Earth’s history,” she said...

“A slightly shocking finding,” Tripati said, “is that the only time in the last 20 million years that we find evidence for carbon dioxide levels similar to the modern level of 387 parts per million was 15 to 20 million years ago, when the planet was dramatically different.”...

“We have shown that this dramatic rise in sea level is associated with an increase in carbon dioxide levels of about 100 parts per million, a huge change,” Tripati said. “This record is the first evidence that carbon dioxide may be linked with environmental changes, such as changes in the terrestrial ecosystem, distribution of ice, sea level and monsoon intensity.”

Today, the Arctic Ocean is covered with frozen ice all year long, an ice cap that has been there for about 14 million years.

“Prior to that, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic,” Tripati said...


for complete article:

Science: CO2 levels haven’t been this high for 15 million years, when it was 5° to 10°F warmer and seas were 75 to 120 feet higher — “We have shown that this dramatic rise in sea level is associated with an increase in CO2 levels of about 100 ppm.”

2009-10-18
http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/18/science-co2-levels-havent-been-this-high-for-15-million-years-when-it-was-5%C2%B0-to-10%C2%B0f-warmer-and-seas-were-75-to-120-feet-higher-we-have-shown-that-this-dramatic-rise-in-sea-level-i/#more-12516

World Must Shift to Low-Carbon Economy by 2014 or Face Dangerous Climate Change

World Must Shift to Low-Carbon Economy by 2014 or Face Dangerous Climate Change, Says WWF

Delay in low-carbon technologies will make it impossible to cut CO2 quickly enough to avoid worst impacts of global warming ~

The world must start a "complete" shift to a low carbon economy by 2014 — or risk making dangerous climate change almost inevitable, a report warned today.

The study for conservation charity WWF showed that waiting until after 2014 to fully develop the clean industries needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as renewable energy, would leave it too late to halt temperature rises of more than 2C.

With low-carbon industry only able to grow at a certain rate, a delay in taking action will make it almost impossible for countries to roll out the technology in time to cut emissions by the amounts needed to avoid the worst impacts of global warming.

The research by analysts Climate Risk (pdf) also said countries must take action across a range of industries at once, including renewable energy, technology to capture the carbon emissions from fossil fuel power stations, preventing deforestation and improving energy efficiency.

If countries fail to tackle emissions across all sectors, they will end up getting the lowest-cost industries up and running first and not developing other areas until they are affordable.

This would make it impossible to meet targets to reduce emissions, the study warned...

Keith Allott, head of climate change at WWF-UK, said: "Clean industry sectors can only expand so far, so quickly.

"If we wait until later than 2014 to begin aggressively tackling the problem, we will have left it too late to ensure that all the low-carbon solutions required are ready to roll out at the scale needed if we intend to keep within the world's remaining carbon budget.

He said the report highlighted the need for a "complete industrial shift towards a low-carbon future" which must begin with a fair and binding deal on climate change in Copenhagen in December...


for complete article:

2009-10-18
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/oct/19/wwf-low-carbon-technologies/print


for a copy of the research by analysts Climate Risk (pdf):

http://www.climaterisk.com.au/userfiles/image/Download%20Files/Climate%20Solutions%202%20-%20Full%20Report%5B1%5D.pdf

Britain Warns of Climate Catastrophe

Copenhagen Climate Change Talks Are Last Chance, Says Gordon Brown

~ There are now fewer than 50 days to set course of next 50 years and more, PM tells environment ministers from 17 countries responsible for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions. Gordon Brown to world leaders: Come to Copenhagen! ~


Photo of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown at Major Economies Forum in London Monday: Scanpix/AFP


Gordon Brown today warned that the world is on the brink of a "catastrophic" future of killer heatwaves, floods and droughts unless governments speed up negotiations on climate change before vital talks in Copenhagen in December.

This applies to the US as much as anyone, he said, adding that "there is no plan B", and that agreement cannot be deferred beyond the UN-sponsored Copenhagen conference.

There are fears that Barack Obama does not have the political capital to reach a deal in Copenhagen and will instead use a visit to China next month to reach a bilateral deal that circumvents the UN.

Downing Street is also concerned that there is no agreement on how to finance a climate change package in developing countries.

The prime minister delivered his warning to a meeting of environment ministers brought together under the umbrella of the Major Economies Forum. The 17 countries in the forum are responsible for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions.

Brown told them: "In every era there are only one or two moments when nations come together and reach agreements that make history, because they change the course of history. Copenhagen must be such a time. There are now fewer than 50 days to set the course of the next 50 years and more.

"If we do not reach a deal at this time, let us be in no doubt: once the damage from unchecked emissions growth is done, no retrospective global agreement in some future period can undo that choice. By then it will be irretrievably too late."...


Copenhagen climate change talks are last chance, says Gordon Brown
2009-10-19
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/oct/19/gordon-brown-copenhagen-climate-talks


Britain Warns of Climate Catastrophe
2009-10-19
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/10/19/world/AP-EU-Britain-Climate-Forum.html?ref=global-home

Maldives Holds Cabinet Meeting Underwater to Highlight Danger of Global Warming

Maldives government dives for climate change

~ Seated at a table on the sea floor the low-lying island state's president, vice president, cabinet secretary and 11 ministers signed a document calling on all countries to cut their carbon dioxide emissions ~


Photo of Fisheries and Agriculture Minister Ibrahim Didi signing the decree: Scanpix/AFP

Members of the Maldives' Cabinet donned scuba gear and used hand signals Saturday at an underwater meeting staged to highlight the threat of global warming to the lowest-lying nation on earth.

President Mohammed Nasheed and 13 other government officials submerged and took their seats at a table on the sea floor — 20 feet (6 meters) below the surface of a lagoon off Girifushi, an island usually used for military training.

With a backdrop of coral, the meeting was a bid to draw attention to fears that rising sea levels caused by the melting of polar ice caps could swamp this Indian Ocean archipelago within a century. Its islands average 7 feet (2.1 meters) above sea level.

"What we are trying to make people realize is that the Maldives is a frontline state. This is not merely an issue for the Maldives but for the world," Nasheed said.

As bubbles floated up from their face masks, the president, vice president, Cabinet secretary and 11 ministers signed a document calling on all countries to cut their carbon dioxide emissions.

The issue has taken on urgency ahead of a major UN climate change conference scheduled for December in Copenhagen. At that meeting countries will negotiate a successor to the Kyoto Protocol with aims to cut the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide that scientists blame for causing global warming by trapping heat in the atmosphere.

Wealthy nations want broad emissions cuts from all countries, while poorer ones say industrialized countries should carry most of the burden.

Dozens of Maldives soldiers guarded the event Saturday, but the only intruders were groupers and other fish.

Nasheed had already announced plans for a fund to buy a new homeland for his people if the 1,192 low-lying coral islands are submerged. He has promised to make the Maldives, with a population of 350,000, the world's first carbon-neutral nation within a decade.

"We have to get the message across by being more imaginative, more creative and so this is what we are doing," he said in an interview on a boat en route to the dive site.

Nasheed, who has emerged as a key, and colorful, voice on climate change, is a certified diver, but the others had to take diving lessons in recent weeks.

Three ministers missed the underwater meeting because two were not given medical permission and another was abroad.


Maldives government dives for climate change
2009-10-19
http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2376


for interview with President Mohamed Nasheed:

Island Nation of Maldives Holds Cabinet Meeting Underwater to Highlight Danger of Global Warming
2009-10-18
http://www.democracynow.org/2009/10/19/island_nation_of_maldives_holds_cabinet


Videos:

Maldives Cabinet Holds Meeting Underwater
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKoch_iEos8&feature=player_embedded

Maldives president holds underwater cabinet meeting: Cabinet sign SOS memo to raise awareness of threat of rising sea levels to their country
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/video/2009/oct/19/maldives-government-underwater-cabinet-meeting

North Pole Summers Could Be Ice Free in 10 Years

North Pole Summers Could Be Ice Free in 10 Years

~ Findings by the Catlin Arctic Survey team show that most of the ice in the region is first-year ice that is only around 1.8 meters deep and will melt next summer ~

The North Pole will turn into an open sea during summer within a decade, according to data released Wednesday by a team of explorers who trekked through the Arctic for three months

The Catlin Arctic Survey team, led by explorer Pen Hadow, measured the thickness of the ice as it sledged and hiked through the northern part of the Beaufort Sea in the north Pole earlier this year during a research project. Their findings show that most of the ice in the region is first-year ice that is only around 1.8 meters (six feet) deep and will melt next summer. The region has traditionally contained, thicker multiyear ice which does not melt as rapidly.

"With a larger part of the region now first-year ice, it is clearly more vulnerable," said Professor Peter Wadhams, part of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge which analyzed the data. "The area is now more likely to become open water each summer, bringing forward the potential date when the summer sea ice will be completely gone."

Wadhams said the Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within 20 years, and that much of the decrease will happen within 10 years.

Martin Sommerkorn of the World Wildlife Fund said the Arctic sea holds a central position in the earth's climate system. "Such a loss of Arctic sea ice cover has recently been assessed to set in motion powerful climate feedbacks which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself," he said.

He added: "This could lead to flooding affecting one-quarter of the world's population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emissions from massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes."

Global warming has raised the stakes in the scramble for sovereignty in the Arctic because shrinking polar ice could someday open resource development and new shipping lanes. The rapid melting of ice has raised speculation that the Northwest Passage linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans could one day become a regular shipping lane.

The results come as negotiators prepare to meet in Copenhagen in December to draft a global climate pact.


AP/Michael von Bülow 14/10/2009 20:40
http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2358

China and Developing Nations Accuse Rich Nations of Trying to Sabotage Climate Treaty

China Leads Accusation that Rich Nations Are Trying to Sabotage Climate Treaty

~ Angry statement from 131 countries at climate talks in Bangkok claims rich nations are rejecting historical responsibilities ~

The US and other developed countries are attempting to "fundamentally sabotage" the Kyoto protocol and all-important international negotiations over its next phase, according to coordinated statements by China and 130 developing countries at UN climate talks in Bangkok today...

"The reason why we are not making progress is the lack of political will by Annex 1 [industrialised] countries. There is a concerted effort to fundamentally sabotage the Kyoto protocol," said ambassador Yu Qingtai China's special representative on climate talks. "We now hear statements that would lead to the termination of the protocol. They are introducing new rules, new formats. That's not the way to conduct negotiations," said Yu...

The angry statements follow a revelation by Barack Obama's energy adviser, Carol Browner, that she did not expect the US Senate to vote on its crucial global warming bill before the Copenhagen talks. That will severely limit Obama's room for manoeuvre at the summit and is the first time the White House has made such an admission...

The G77 plus China group is incensed that rich countries appear to be seeking to establish a new agreement that would force developing countries to cut emissions, but allow rich countries to do little.

In the talks, the US has said it wants a new approach which would move away from a legally binding world agreement to one where individual countries pledged cuts in their national emissions without binding timetables and targets. It is a change from the top down approach of Kyoto, in which total emissions targets are determined by the science, to one in which individual countries pledge their own emissions cuts.

This is seen as undermining the Kyoto framework, which took many years to build, and has until now been the foundation for committing all countries to cut their emissions. The US team in Bangkok declined to respond to today's criticism.

Developed countries have so far refused to show their hand on what their emission cuts should be. The UN's Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that to keep below a 2C rise in temperatures they need to cut their emissions by 25-40% by 2020, compared with 1990 levels. But developing countries are calling for an aggregate cut of at least 40%...

The UN estimates that the combined cut from national pledges made by rich countries, without the US, comes to 16-23%. However, a new analysis by the Alliance of Small Island States, estimates that this drops to just 11-18% with the US's present offer. If rich countries are allowed to offset large amounts of emissions, as expected, this would mean that the world's rich countries might not to have to make any emissions cuts at home...

"They are stressing that developing countries have 'common' responsibilities, a code for pulling in the developing countries into emission-reduction obligations, while down-playing the 'differentiated' responsibilities that recognise that the developing countries have had little role in the historic emissions and need space for economic development."...


2009-10-05
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/oct/05/climate-change-kyoto

Close to 70 Percent of the Earth's Soil in Risk of Drought

Close to 70 Percent of the Earth's Soil in Risk of Drought

~ UNCCD warns that green deal is necessary in order combat desertification ~

Countries around the world need to implement policies to slow desertification. If policies fail, drought could parch close to 70 percent of the planet's soil by 2025, warns the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), Luc Gnacadja.

"If we cannot find a solution to this problem... in 2025, close to 70 percent could be affected," Luc Gnacadja of Benin said at the ninth session of the UNCCD last week in Argentina, according to AFP.

Gnacadja said that "there will not be global security without food security" in dry regions. He stressed that "a green deal is necessary" for developing countries working to combat drought and linked the discussion to the UN climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December. In Copenhagen, sustainable soil management must be on the agenda, he said. In a statement UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon agreed that "when world leaders gather in Copenhagen in December, the land agenda should be part of the picture."

"Sustainable land management can make a critical contribution through carbon sequestration, land reclamation and efforts to combat soil loss and restore vegetation," said Ban Ki-moon.


2009-10-05
http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2273

Copenhagen Negotiating Text: 200 Pages to Save the World?

Copenhagen Negotiating Text: 200 Pages to Save the World?

~ Draft agreement being discussed ahead of December's crucial Copenhagen summit is long, confusing and contradictory ~

It is a blueprint to save the world. And yet it is long, confusing and contradictory. Negotiators have released a draft version of a new global agreement on climate change, which is widely billed as the last chance to save the planet from the ravages of global warming.

Running to some 200 pages, the draft agreement is being discussed for the first time this week as officials from 190 countries gather in Bangkok for the latest round of UN talks. There is only one short meeting after this before they meet in Copenhagen aiming to hammer out a final version.

The draft text consolidates and reorders hundreds of changes demanded by countries to the previous version, which saw it balloon to an unmanageable 300 pages. It has no official status yet, and must be formally approved before negotiators can start to whittle it down. Here, we present key, edited sections from the text and attempt to decipher what the words mean.

The text includes sections on the traditional sticking points that have delayed progress on climate change for a decade or longer.

• How much are rich countries willing to cut their greenhouse gas emissions, and by when?

• Will large developing nations such as China make an effort to put at least a dent in their soaring levels of pollution?

• How much money must flow from the developed world to developing countries to grease the wheels and secure their approval? How much to compensate for the impact of past emissions, and how much to help prevent future emissions?

According to the UN rules, for a new treaty to be agreed, every country must sign up – a challenging requirement...


for complete article:

Copenhagen Negotiating Text: 200 Pages to Save the World?
2009-09-28
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/sep/28/copenhagen-climate-text


Download Copenhagen Negotiating Text:

AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON LONG-TERM COOPERATIVE ACTION
UNDER THE CONVENTION
Seventh session
Bangkok, 28 September to 9 October 2009, and Barcelona, 2–6 November 2009

http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005444#beg


for a commentary:

The beginners' guide to the Copenhagen climate conference negotiating text
The COP15 negotiating document will form the basis of a crucial climate agreement at global talks in Copenhagen this December. David Adam explains what the text really means
2009-09-28
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2009/sep/28/climate-change-copenhagen-text-explanation

Climate Negotiators Warn Time is Running Out

Climate Negotiators Warn Time is Running Out

International climate change negotiators gathered in the Thai capital Bangkok on Monday hoping the momentum built up by recent emissions pledges by China, India and Japan could break the deadlock to achieve consensus as the clock ticks down to the deadline of December’s Copenhagen summit.

Deep divisions, however, remain.

The developed nations are waiting for firm commitments from the emerging economies to reduce the growth in their emissions and the developing nations are waiting for the developed world to commit to financing the massive costs of restructuring.

In Bangkok, the leaders of the meeting warned of a failure to bridge the gap.

“Time is not just pressing, it has almost run out,” said Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change...

The Bangkok meeting is aimed at slimming down the current 200-page discussion document to closer to 30 pages.

“We have a text which is excessive and unmanageable, our driving message here in Bangkok is to speed up the process and achieve this condensed document,” said Anders Turesson, the chief climate negotiator for Sweden, which currently holds the presidency of the European Union.

Tove Ryding of Greenpeace was blunter.

“We’re drowning in text,” she said. “In three months we have managed to cut it down by just 18 pages: if we continue at that rate it will take us two or three years to get to down to size.”...

Most scientists agree that in order to keep temperatures from rising to catastrophic levels, the industrialised nations will have to cut their emissions to between 25 and 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, while developing countries will have to limit their emissions growth to between 15 and 30 per cent below their current trajectory by 2020.


for complete article:
2009-09-28
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23504a4c-ac19-11de-950b-00144feabdc0.html

Catastrophic Climate Change Could Happen Within 50 Years

Catastrophic Climate Change Could Happen Within 50 Years

~ Global warming accelerates, underlining the importance for the world to reach an ambitious climate deal in Copenhagen, a new report from the British Met Office states ~

- Study says 4C rise in temperature could happen by 2060
- Increase could threaten water supply of half world population

If greenhouse gas emissions are not cut soon, we could see major climate changes within our lifetime, or five decades earlier than previously predicted, says a British Met Office study being presented today at a conference at Oxford University.

The report shows that an average global temperature rise of four degrees Celsius (7.2F), considered a dangerous tipping point, could happen by 2060 – but the warming up could be significantly higher (10 degrees or more) in some areas, causing droughts around the world, sea level rises and the collapse of important ecosystems, The Telegraph reports.

The Arctic could warm by up to 15.2 degrees Celsius for a high-emissions scenario, enhanced by melting of snow and ice causing more of the sun’s radiation to be absorbed.

Rainfall could decrease by 20 percent or more over Western and Southern Africa, Central America, the Mediterranean and parts of coastal Australia. In other areas, such as India, rainfall could increase by 20 percent or more, the report predicts.

”Together these impacts will have very large consequences for food security, water availability and health. However, it is possible to avoid these dangerous levels of temperature rise by cutting greenhouse gas emissions. If global emissions peak within the next decade and then decrease rapidly it may be possible to avoid at least half of the four degrees of warming,” says Dr Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre.


for complete articles:

New study: Catastrophic climate change could happen within 50 years
2009-09-28
http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2216


Report from Met Office: Four degrees and beyond
2009-09-28
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/four-degrees.html


Met Office warns of catastrophic global warming in our lifetimes
2009-09-28
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/sep/28/met-office-study-global-warming